Now that the polls are closed...here are my Oscar pics!

So, each and every year, my brother and I enter into a long and sophisticated process of making our Oscar pics. We do this partly for the joy of it, but also b/c we both enter into a few pretty serious Oscar pools for cash money! We see all the films. We read all the blogs. We look at other people's predictions. And then we make our picks together over the phone, splitting our votes on the categories that are the toughest (like Best Director this year--I went Speilberg, he went Lee, even though both of us really want Lee to win).

So, now that all Oscar voting is closed, and all the Hollywoods will be partying until Sunday, I will post what I think the winners will be. The shitty thing about Oscar pools is that a huge part of me always wants to pick who deserves to win/who I want to win, but you can't go with your heart in these matters, as Hollywood, and Oscar pools are nothing if not unfair, ruthless, and extremely political.

Anyway, b/c this is my blog, I am making the distinction between what I think will win and who I think should win in a few categories. (Red are my "official" picks, and where you see yellow, are what I wish would win).

 

The strongest year for movies in as long as I can remember. Also, a year where in the days leading up to the awards, many of the top ticket categories are still pretty undecided--a rarity. Think about it: when was the last time you didn't know all 4 acting awards, best picture, and best director weeks before the show?

The most interesting thing is the Ben Affleck snub (and not b/c I think Ben Affleck should ever win a Best Director award--good God no!). It's what that snub did for the momentum of Argo--it is likely to win Best Picture, even though it may not take any of the other big awards--acting, directing, etc. This is UNPRECEDENTED. Imagine if Argo wins Best Picture and no other award? That is INSANE. It is clearly not Best Picture material then, if none of the parts add up to the sum...

The Affleck snub has made it an interesting Director race too. Although mainly a 2 man race btwn Speilberg and Lee--who have both won before--DO Russel is in the mix with Harvey Weinstein backing him and J Law winning so many awards, and then there is European darling director of Amour--who, according to my brother, b/c there is a larger European membership of the Academy this year, may have a shot. 

So, what would these categories have looked like had Affleck not gotten snubbed? He may have gotten the award for Director (which again is shameful, not b/c Argo is bad, but b/c Gone Baby Gone and The Town are so so BAD-but the Academy's largest branch is Actors and they love giving directing awards to their "own"--see Kevin Costnor, Clint Eastwood etc) but I really don't think Argo would have been a contender for Best Picture. I believe it would have been a race between Lincoln, Silver Lining's Playbook, and Life of Pi. But who knows? 

It's crazy how much of it all boils down to unexplainable timing and momentum. In this year's race, there have been at least 5 Best picture front runners at different times. Coming out of TIFF (where it won the People's Choice Award), SLP was clearly the front runner. And then the Affleck's started pimping out Argo. And then Lincoln and DDL's performance happened. Then the Zero Dark Thirty controversy. And the lead up to Les Mis, etc etc. As I said before, it's been a great year. I'm still so shocked at how fragile the momentum behind a film is, and how quickly it can change.